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The Inverted Yield Curve

The Inverted Yield Curve

In 1986, Campbell R. Harvey proved incontrovertibly that inverted yield curves forecast U.S. recessions. While this prediction does not hold in other countries, its 100% hit rate in the U.S. before 1986 was stunning evidence of a predictable trend—especially stunning because there are no other reliable recession predictors.

Creating an Index

Creating an Index

A lot of talk in the popular financial press is about the “index,” and, specifically, who can beat it and who can’t. This is particularly the case on both CNBC and Bloomberg, and there are two reasons for it.

Quantifying Fear

Quantifying Fear

The market’s recent pullback is driven by a familiar phenomenon: the trade war. The Trump administration’s attempt to increase tariffs from 10% to 25% has resulted in a brief market panic and a lot of yelling from both sides of the political aisle.

The Degradation of the DCF

The Degradation of the DCF

The ability to create an accurate and reliable discounted cash flow (DCF) model was once the hallmark of a powerful and well-paid financial analyst. Now anyone who brags about their ability to create a DCF model is laughed out the room.

How Quants are Different

How Quants are Different

The quantitative analyst or “quant” is nothing like the conventional financial analyst who, after learning the intricacies of financial metrics, capital structures, and so on, uses that skill set to analyze balance sheets. Quants often know very little of the CFA charter textbooks—and they don’t need to, because the kind of analysis they do couldn’t be any more different than the conventional ones.